Market Momentum – Needham Rocks, Wellesley Slides, Natick Steady

Well the real estate pundits have been pontificating on what the market’s been doing.

And it seems that anyone and everyone announces their opinion as fact.

Some of the major media outlets have decreed certain towns to be “recession proof,” and others have taken attendee numbers at an open house to be the indicator of how well a town’s market is faring these days.

But rather than relying on anecdotal evidence, let’s take a look at the facts.

What are the  relevant numbers and what do they tell us?

Signaling the arrival of the ides of March, market momentum is varying significantly by town.

NEEDHAM

Needham has burst out of the 2009 gate with a strong showing for the first two months of this year.

Sales in Needham for January and February soared 66.7% compared to the same period in 2008.

Transaction dollar volume in Needham has increased an astounding 78.4 % for the first two months of 2009, as compared to 2008.

WELLESLEY

Given that Wellesley’s home sales for the first two months of this year fell off the cliff, is it possible that buyers have turned to more affordable Needham?

Food for thought…

Homes sales in Wellesley were down 62.5% for the first two months of 2009, compared to the same period in 2008.

Transaction dollar volume slid a precipitous 70.6%.

NEEDHAMWELLESLEY – NATICK

SALES + 66.7%        62.5%                5.0%

$ VOLUME + 78.4%         70.6%               18.3%

NATICK

A third metro west community, Natick, stayed on course during the first two months of 2009 by closing just one less home than the same period last year.

Transaction dollar volume in Natick declined 18.3%, due to a lower average sale price this year, as compared to the same period in 2008.

What does  all this mean?

house-in-hands

Wellesley’s average list price for single family homes is currently $1,949,567.

This is a stark contrast and out of balance with the average selling price of $1,077,917, for the first two months of 2009.

With numbers this far askew it may be some time before the market regains equilibrium in Wellesley.

Wellesley’s numbers remained strong for some time after other nearby communities had been hit by the recession.

But the downturn in the economy has clearly caught up with Wellesley’s real estate market.  The vast difference in the average listing price, versus the ACTUAL average sales price means that buyers aren’t perceiving the same value as the sellers do, OR that the higher end is not moving as well as Wellesley’s more affordable/lower range homes.

Buyers seem to be gravitating towards the lower priced homes in Wellesley, and appear to be avoiding the higher end.

While in Needham and Natick, it appears that buyers are perceiving value at the listing prices, though undoubtedly some buyers looking for the “deal of the century” will feel that these towns are still priced relatively high.

JOHN PRESCOTT

BostonKayakGuy

Top Real Estate Agent for more than 14 years, serving the real estate needs of Wellesley, South Natick, Weston, Needham, Wayland, Newton, Framingham and other MetWest communities. www.johnprescott.net

JOHN PRESCOTT

Vice President

Century 21 Commonwealth

508-523-9252

BostonKayakGuy…The MetWest Scene

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One Response

  1. […] Market Momentum – Needham Rocks, Wellesley Slides, Natick Steady (bostonkayakguy.wordpress.com) Possibly related posts: (automatically generated)LET’S MAKE A DEAL!!! Close to Wellesley Center..Welcome to Wellesley, Weston and Needham Real Estate BlogWSJ says that in order for real estate market to rebound, prices have to st…China’s Own Version of the Real Estate Bust […]

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